The Impact of Climate Change on Kenya’s Food Prices: A Deep Dive into the Agricultural Sector.

By: Sharon Njeru.

According to the Agriculture Sector Survey conducted in May, prices for items such as non-aromatic (unbroken) white rice, white bread, brown bread, aromatic white rice, and both white and brown wheat flour, as well as green maize, are projected to rise by an average of 20 percent. The survey emphasized that the price of rice, in particular, is anticipated to increase by nearly 40 percent due to the negative impact of excessive rainfall on domestic production. Similarly, bread prices are expected to climb as a result of flooding affecting domestic wheat production.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) conducted this survey to collect data on current and anticipated price trends for food items to inform its monetary policy decisions. The survey, carried out in April and May, involved 268 respondents, including farmers, retailers, and wholesalers.

In contrast, respondents predicted a significant decrease in the prices of loose maize flour, loose maize grain, sifted maize flour, and fortified maize flour in June. This expectation was based on the belief that market supply would improve, bolstered by favorable weather conditions in the country.

The survey also indicated that prices of vegetables, milk, and sugar are expected to decline, though onion prices are likely to remain high in June. However, some respondents suggested that the elevated cost of onions might encourage farmers to increase production, potentially leading to lower prices.

For sugar, respondents anticipated only a minimal price drop, as the commodity had already decreased from high levels and was expected to stabilize. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) showed that the price of a kilo of sugar fell from Ksh.209.55 in January to Ksh.200 in February, a decrease driven by a boost in production following a five-month ban on the harvest of immature canes, allowing crops to reach full maturity.

Overall, 57 percent of respondents expected a decrease in the inflation rate over the next three months, while 43 percent anticipated an increase. According to KNBS, the inflation rate in May was 5.1 percent.